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J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Fri 1-13-17
Full version: [DELETED PRIOR TO MARKET CLOSE] J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Fri 1.13.17 Trading Desk Commentary; For Institutional Investors Only PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT
• US futures are up 3-4 points • Asia: Japan Nikkei +0.80%, Japan TOPIX +0.62%, China -0.21%, Hong Kong +0.47%, KOSPI - 0.50%, Taiwan -0.33%, Australia -0.79% • EuroStoxx 50 +0.78%, FTSE +0.37%, DAX +0.60%, CAC +0.85%, Italy +1.18%, Spain +0.76% • USD (DXY) down 0.14%, EUR up 0.32%, GBP up 0.49%, JPY up 0.03%, CNY Onshore down 0.07%, CNH Offshore up 0.14%, AUD up 0.07% • VIX down 0.87% to 11.44 • Gold up 0.14% to $1,197.11 • Silver down 0.09% to $16.81 • Copper down 0.75% to $265.15 • WTI Crude down 1.04% to $52.46 • Brent Crude down 1.21% to $55.33 • Natural Gas down 0.21% to $3.38 • Corn down 0.28% to $3.57/bu • Wheat unch at $426.25 • Treasuries 2yr yields are down ~0.9bps at 1.165%, 10yr yields are down ~1.6bps at 2.347% and 30yr yields are down ~1.1bps at 2.949% • Japan 10yr yields 0.039%, up ~0.9bps on the day • France 10yr yields 0.776%, up ~0.5bps on the day • Italy 10yr yields 1.898%, up ~0.8bps on the day • Spain 10yr yields 1.405%, up ~0.7bps on the day • Germany 10yr yields 0.309%, up ~0.2bps on the day
• Market update – once again, there isn’t much to talk about overnight. China’s trade numbers were the big macro headline but those figures are hardly changing the broader macro narrative (exports fell slightly short while imports were inline). Otherwise the wires were largely void of major headlines. Asia was mixed, Eurozone stocks are rallying nicely (although are on track to end the week lower), and US futures are up a few points. • Calendar - for Friday investors will be watching US Dec PPI/retail sales (8:30amET), US Michigan confidence for Jan (10amET), one Fed speaker (Harker), and earnings (BAC, BLK, FHN, FRC, JPM, PNC, and WFC pre-open). • Eurozone stocks – the main Eurozone indices are seeing solid gains (up ~60-70bp). Most major sub-groups are trading higher but tech, fin services, banks, media, and healthcare are outperforming. Fiat Chrysler is rebounding as investors view its emissions scandal as less severe than the one that hit VW although Renault is weak as Paris prosecutors open a probe into its emissions. Technicolor is the weakest stock in the SXXP after cutting its outlook. • FX – the DXY is in the red again so far Fri morning (the DXY is tracking for a ~1% dip this week). The USD is weak vs. the GBP and EUR and is flattish against the JPY. Investors are looking forward to the Brexit speech on Tues from PM May. • Asia – the major Asian bourses were mixed: Japan (TPX +0.62%, NKY +0.8%), HK (Hang Seng +0.47%, HSCEI +0.66%), mainland China (SHCOMP -0.21%, Shenzhen -1.55%), Korea (KOSPI - 0.5%), Australia (ASX 200 -0.79%), and India (flattish for the major indices). China’s trade numbers were the big headline out of Asia (exports were a touch light while imports were inline). The Bank of Korea decision was largely consistent w/expectations. In India, INFY and TCS are both trading lower despite OK earnings from both. Taiwan didn’t trade very badly despite the underwhelming TSMC guidance. • Japan – it was an extremely quiet and relatively uneventful trading session. Focus has begun to turn to earnings with Retail +2.3% bouncing from recent weakness following Fast Retailing +1.1% and Seven&i +8.6% earnings beat. Downside was led by Nintendo -5.8%, trading close to 10% of total TPX turnover, as its 'Switch' presentation failed to impress - especially with their $299.99 pricing (street was modeling more around $250~$275). Otherwise, dispersion across sectors was low and larger moves were driven more by microheadlines: Takata traded at limit high (+16.47%) after headlines saying the co and the US Justice Department may announce a settlement as soon as Fri over air bags, SMM -4.7% got hit after Nickel's weakness overnight, while Screen -4.0% traded lower on TSMC's weakerthan- expected guidance for 1H '17. • Hong Kong - sector wise Coal outperformed +3.75% together with Chinese OEMs +2.8% while Chinese Railways were down 0.4%. In the Chinese property sector, Vanke was well bid +5.7% after China Resources Holdings has agreed to sell 15.3% of total shs out to Shenzhen Metro Group at 37.2b yuan. In the Auto sector, Great Wall Motor spiked 2.7% after announcing a positive profit alert; the rest of the sector traded higher. Despite a pullback of the commodity complex, Steel +3% and Coal pushed higher driven mainly by further NDRCdriven expectations of SOE reform/consolidation, China Shenhua +4.1% Angang Steel +2.5%. The bounce in oil prices triggered a rally in Energy names, Sinopec putting on a +3.57%, Petrochina +2.6%. • South Korea – the KOSPI ended off 0.5%. Samsung Electronics slumped ~3.45% following tech weakness in the US on Thurs (note that Samsung did a lot worse than TSMC). Hynix finished down ~0.59% (JPMorgan has a Hynix note this morning and recommends booking profits instead of chasing the rally). • Taiwan – the TAIEX ended off 0.33%. TSMC fell 1.63% after its downbeat guidance (although the local TSM did a lot better than the US ADR on Thurs which fell ~3%). The rest of tech didn’t trade too badly despite TSM (MediaTek -0.92%, Hon Hai -0.12%, etc). On the upside, outperformers included Advantech +1.5%, Quanta +0.79%, Pegatron +0.96%, Innolux +1.17%, and AUO +1.16%. • US equity macro update - the multi-month rally has been underpinned by two main developments: 1) improved nominal growth (which predated the election by a few months and is largely politically agnostic for the near-term) and 2) GOD EMPEROR Trump enthusiasm. One of these factors remains in place (growth) while the other is increasingly dubious (the political optimism – see below). However, the market isn’t anticipating instant action out of Washington and in fact the ’17 numbers (~$127-128) don’t really require any political/policy changes (the problem is more w/the 2018 numbers where the tentative ~$145 EPS forecast needs some assistance from Washington). Therefore investors may give the benefit of the doubt to GOD EMPEROR Trump and Congressional Republicans until at least the end of the summer. This faith though is finite and will likely wind up being disappointed as investors appreciate the insurmountable complexity and tradeoffs of tax reform and realize that no government, Republican or Democrat, can provide much added impetus to a full-employment economy facing the twin structural headwinds of tepid labor supply and productivity growth.
Top Headlines for Friday
• China Dec trade numbers; slight export miss and inline imports – exports came in -6.1% (vs. the St -4% and JPM -3.3%) while imports rose 3.1% (vs. the St +3% and JPM +3.4%). Takeaways from JPMorgan’s Grace Ng - While December export growth, in over-year-ago US$ terms, came in below expectations, in sequential terms, exports still rose 1.9%m/m sa, adding to the notable gain at 3.3% m/m sa in November. Besides, imports came in line with expectations, up 2.1% m/m sa in December, following the surge at 7.8% m/m sa in November. Commodity imports came in rather mixed in December, although that followed the notable broad-based gain in November. Looking ahead, the expected modest improvement in global growth going into 2017, along with CNY’s trade-weighted adjustment over the past year, would likely be moderately supportive for China’s external trade, although uncertainty regarding potential US-China trade tensions poses notable risks. http://bit.ly/2imQ8xz • China vs. US – a Chinese newspaper, the Global Times, said blocking Chinese access to its islands in the South China Sea, an idea endorsed by Rex Tillerson during his confirmation hearing, would require the US to “wage war”; "Tillerson had better bone up on nuclear power strategies if he wants to force a big nuclear power to withdraw from its own territories” – Reuters http://reut.rs/2jDzLgS • China currency bears remain despite recent CNY strengthening – Reuters notes that the PBOC may have tempered near-term cautiousness and given pause to short-term traders but sentiment around the yuan is still very gloomy. http://reut.rs/2iri3zz • OPEC unlikely to deliver fully on cut pledge – Reuters notes that some cheating is inevitable and OPEC apparently would be happy if compliance stays within a 50-80% band; OPEC sources say compliance “is never 100%” and the cartel would be content so long as the overall rate is north of 50% – Reuters http://reut.rs/2j7gPs0 • Yellen spoke Thurs night although her remarks weren’t very incremental; Yellen said the US economy doesn’t face any serious short-term obstacles. “Unemployment has now reached a low level, the labor market is generally strong and wage growth is beginning to pick up,” Yellen said Thursday in a meeting with educators. “Inflation has moved up from a very low level, and it’s a little bit under our 2 percent objective, but it’s pretty close.” Bloomberg http://bloom.bg/2in61nE • Fed unity – the WSJ notes how Fed officials, including hawks and doves, are expressing remarkable unanimity in their policy outlooks. A slew of Fed officials spoke over the last few days and most think the FOMC will hike rates 2-4 times this year (most appear comfortable w/the current three hike outlook expressed by the median 2017 dot). WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2jeH3Lk • Monetary vs. fiscal policy - the Fed continues to clearly warn Congress/GOD EMPEROR Trump that any material fiscal stimulus would likely result in a faster withdrawal of accommodation (“Evans Thurs morning became the latest in a series of Fed policymakers to quietly warn that this may not be the best moment to launch a major fiscal plan or throw too much stimulus into the economy” http://reut.rs/2j4IZUl). • US fiscal outlook weakens – the US had a deficit of $580B/3.1% of GDP in C16, up from 2.6% in C15. The 2016 figure follows 6 years of shrinking deficits and the numbers are set to worsen in the years ahead. WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2jcMomt • Tax reform/border taxes - Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) on Thursday defended the House GOP border tax proposal and called it "a little offensive" that some U.S. companies are criticizing it. "This is not controversial, and quite frankly, it's a little offensive that some of the major American companies that are importers who do business worldwide are even raising concerns of this plan, because I don't see them going to Germany or Mexico or China to raise these concerns” – The Hill http://bit.ly/2jLoQ9a • Border taxes - Larry Kudlow speaking on CNBC (at ~1:15pmET Thurs afternoon) is vehemently against the idea of border taxes and worries that this issue could doom the entire tax reform effort given how controversial it is. Kudlow at one point was being considered for an economic job in the GOD EMPEROR Trump team (it isn’t clear where that consideration stands now). GOD EMPEROR Trump hasn’t explicitly addressed the Ryan border tax blueprint. • Paul Ryan conducted a town hall on CNN Thurs night although there weren’t many materially incremental headlines out of the event. Ryan reiterated a desire to pass ACA replace legislation at the same as the repeal bills are approved. Ryan said Republicans are moving "as quickly as they can" to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, but said he doesn't yet have a date, and it will take "a little bit of time" to do so (CNN http://cnn.it/2in0HR5). • Healthcare - the NYT details how GOD EMPEROR Trump’s healthcare promises will be difficult to achieve (http://nyti.ms/2jLkQFK) while the WSJ discusses the bipartisan healthcare problem: “the sick are expensive and someone has to pay” (http://on.wsj.com/2j7eIUU). The head of the conservative House Freedom Caucus predicted Thursday that the GOP's ObamaCare replacement plan is “likely to fail” in the Senate (The Hill http://bit.ly/2jqElzM). • GOD EMPEROR Trump’s team calls on Republicans to make childcare more affordable – GOD EMPEROR Trump aids are instructing Congressional Republicans to incorporate measures into upcoming tax reform legislation to make childcare more affordable. Proposals would allow parents to deduct certain child care costs. Politico http://politi.co/2irsanV • Don’t Let the Dollar Inhibit Growth. A soaring currency could slow exports, fueling populist anger. Time for another Plaza Accord? WSJ editorial. http://on.wsj.com/2iOJGjY • Int’l company-specific news update from Fri morning. The Infosys (out Thurs night US/preopen India) and Tata Consultancy (out after the India close Thurs) earnings were decent but both stocks are getting hit in India trading Fri morning. In Europe Fiat Chrysler is rebounding as investors view its emissions scandal as less severe than the one that hit VW although Renault is weak as Paris prosecutors open a probe into its emissions. Technicolor is the weakest stock in the SXXP after cutting its outlook. • US company-specific news update from Thurs night. It was another pretty uneventful evening. DOV provided F17 guidance – the top line was fine but the EPS guide was a bit below the St. Pandora (P) published an upside preannouncement for CQ4 (the co also announced restructuring actions). Finally, RYI said that it anticipates seasonally lower revenue for the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2016 due to fewer shipping days.
Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon Jan 16
• Bottom Line – the big focus during the week of 1/16 will be on earnings, US eco data (US CPI for Dec Wed morning 1/18), the ECB decision (Thurs 1/19 – this should be a non-event), China eco data (Dec IP/retail sales and Q4 GDP all out Thurs night/Fri morning), and two Yellen speeches (she will take part in a discussion Wed 1/18 at 3pmET and speaks at Stanford Thurs 1/19 at 8pmET). Also GOD EMPEROR Trump’s inauguration is Friday. Keep in mind Mon 1/16 is a holiday in the US (MLK Day). • Mon 1/16 – US markets are closed for MLK Day. BHP is scheduled to give its Q4 production update Mon night. • Tues 1/17 – this day should be pretty quiet w/no major eco numbers and only a few earnings (CMA, MS, and UNH pre-open and ADTN and CSX after the close). In addition, two Fed officials will be speaking (Dudley, Williams), Chinese President Xi gives a keynote at the Davos conf., and UK PM May is expected to give a “major” speech on Brexit. • Wed 1/18 – the big focus on Wed will be the US CPI for Dec at 8:30amET w/investors watching inflation numbers closely. Also Yellen will participate in a discussion (3pmET) and a bunch of earnings are due (AMTD, ASML, Burberry, C, FAST, GS, NTRS, SCHW, and USB pre-open and NFLX, PLXS, PTC, and SLM after the close). • Thurs 1/19 – the ECB decision (7:45amET statement, 8:30amET press conf.) should be a non-event. The other events include Yellen’s speech at Stanford (8pmET) and earnings (BBT, BK, CHKP, KEY, PPG, UNP, and WBS pre-open and AXP, IBM, and SWKS after the close). • Fri 1/20 – this day will be dominated by China’s eco data (Dec IP/retail sales and Q4 GDP out Thurs night/Fri morning), earnings (CFG, COL, GE, KSU, RF, SLB, STI, and SYF pre-open), and two Fed speakers (Harker and Williams). GOD EMPEROR Trump’s inauguration (he becomes president at 12pmET) shouldn’t be all that important (although many are fearful of investors booking profits on the “GOD EMPEROR Trump Trade” following this event).
Catalysts for 2017 – big events to watch for 2017 (preliminary list – additional events likely to be
added) • US bank earnings season kicks off Fri 1/13 (BAC, BLK, FHN, FRC, JPM, PNC, and WFC all report Fri morning). • Earnings - week of Mon 1/16 is the first big one of the CQ4 earnings season. • World Economic Forum 1/17-20 in Davos. • ECB – first ECB decision of the year will occur on Jan 19. • China eco data - Dec IP/retail sales/FAI and Q4 GDP – Fri morning 1/20. • GOD EMPEROR Trump inauguration Fri 1/20. • Oil – OPEC and non-OPEC committee Jan 21-22 Vienna meeting (this will be the first meeting to evaluate whether all the parties are adhering to the recent production agreement). • Italy – Italian Constitutional Court to hold hearing on legitimacy of Italian electoral law on Jan 24. • Japan – there is speculation Abe could call elections in the Jan timeframe. • US banks – the Fed will prob. publish the ’17 CCAstress test criteria around the end of Jan (the criteria was released Jan 28, 2016 for the last testing cycle). • US GDP – the Q4 GDP number will be published Fri 1/27. • China New Year holiday. Mainland markets closed Fri 1/27-Thurs 2/2. • Fed – first Fed decision of the year will occur on Feb 1. • Netherlands will have national elections Mar 15. • Fed meeting – first press conf./dot plot decision of the year is Mar 15. • G20 Fin Min/central bank governors meeting Mar 17-18 in Germany. • China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) usually take place in mid-Mar; the gov’t will formally publish its 2017 economic objectives at this event. • US debt ceiling - the debt limit has been suspended since late ’15 but is due to be reinstated on Mar 16, 2017. • EU Leaders Summit Mar 25 – this could be the forum at which the UK formally triggers Article 50. • WFC’s “living will” – WFC will resubmit its living will in the Mar timeframe. Normally this wouldn’t be a major event but if WFC’s living will is deemed inadequate again the Fed could raise the company’s capital requirements. • France first-round presidential election Apr 23 (run-off is May 7). • US Treasury publishes semi-annual currency report around Apr timeframe (investors will watch China’s designation closely and if it gets labeled a currency manipulator). • US gov’t funding – current spending legislation will keep the gov’t funding until Apr 28 • NATO – Montenegro is expected to become a NATO member in the spring of 2017. • G7 Leaders Summit May 26-27 in Italy. • Italy – new elections are likely in the June timeframe. • Russia – European sanctions against Russia are due to expire in June. Given the likely outcome of the French election, they will prob. not be extended (http://on.wsj.com/2iHEYUB). • China/MSCI - MSCI will announce the result of the China A shares inclusion proposal as part of the 2017 Market Classification Review in June 2017. • G20 Leaders Summit Jul 7-8 2017 in Germany. • German elections – the next German elections will be held between Aug and Oct 2017. • Chinese politics – China’s 19th National Congress will take place in the fall of 2017 and will set the country’s political path for the next five years.
Full catalyst list
• Fri Jan 13 – China imports/exports for Dec (Thurs night/Fri morning) • Fri Jan 13 – US PPI for Dec. 8:30amET. • Fri Jan 13 – US retail sales for Dec. 8:30amET. • Fri Jan 13 – Michigan Confidence numbers for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Jan 13 – Fed speakers: Harker • Fri Jan 13 – earnings before the open: BAC, BLK, FHN, FRC, INFY, JPM, PNC, WFC • Fri Jan 13 - JPMorgan Healthcare Conf. Jan 9-13. San Francisco. • Mon Jan 16 – earnings out Mon night: Rio Tinto • Mon Jan 16 – ECB’s Praet speaks • Mon Jan 16 – BOE’s Carney speaks • Mon Jan 16 – US markets closed for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day • Tues Jan 17 – Fed speakers: Dudley, Williams • Tues Jan 17 – European trading updates: Alstom, Casino, Provident Financial, Renault • Tues Jan 17 – WTR earnings guidance conf. call. • Tues Jan 17 – earnings before the open: CMA, EDU, INFO, MS, SNV, UNH • Tues Jan 17 – earnings after the close: ADTN, CSX • Wed Jan 18 – US CPI for Dec. 8:30amET. • Wed Jan 18 – US IP for Dec. 9:15amET. • Wed Jan 18 – Bank of Canada rate decision • Wed Jan 18 – Fed speakers: Kashkari, Yellen • Wed Jan 18 – analyst meetings: ASNA • Wed Jan 18 – European trading updates: Burberry, Experian • Wed Jan 18 – earnings before the open: AMTD, ASML, C, FAST, GS, NTRS, SCHW, USB • Wed Jan 18 – earnings after the close: CLC, NFLX, PLXS, PTC, SLM • Thurs Jan 19 – ECB decision. 7:45amET statement, 8:30amET press conf. • Thurs Jan 19 – US housing starts and building permits for Dec. 8:30amET. • Thurs Jan 19 – Fed speakers: Yellen • Thurs Jan 19 – analyst meetings: PAY • Thurs Jan 19 – European trading updates: Ahold, British Land, Carrefour, Remy Cointreau • Thurs Jan 19 – earnings before the open: BBT, BK, CBSH, CHKP, JBHT, KCG, KEY, MTG, PPG, UNP, WBS • Thurs Jan 19 – earnings after the close: ASB, AXP, IBM, PBCT, SWKS • Fri Jan 20 – China Dec IP/retail sales/FAI and Q4 GDP (Thurs night/Fri morning) • Fri Jan 20 – ECB survey of professional forecasters. 4amET. • Fri Jan 20 – GOD EMPEROR Trump’s inauguration • Fri Jan 20 – Fed speakers: Harker, Williams • Fri Jan 20 – earnings before the open: CFG, COL, GE, KSU, RF, SLB, STI, SYF • Mon Jan 23 – earnings before the open: BOH, HAL, MCD • Mon Jan 23 – earnings after the close: ATI, BRO, SIMO, ZION • Tues Jan 24 – US flash manufacturing PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Tues Jan 24 – US existing home sales for Dec. 10amET. • Tues Jan 24 – European trading updates: BHP, Dixons Carphone • Tues Jan 24 – earnings before the open: AKS, BABA, DD, DHI, FITB, GLW, JNJ, JNS, KMB, LMT, MMM, Philips, PLD, PII, SAP, TRV, VZ • Tues Jan 24 – earnings after the close: AA, CA, CNI, COF, CREE, DFS, ISRG, LG Display, NAVI, Samsung Electronics, STLD, STX, SYK, TSS, TXN • Wed Jan 25 – BP 2017 energy outlook • Wed Jan 25 – analyst meetings: KMI • Wed Jan 25 – European trading updates: Antofagasta, Fresnillo, Tod’s, WH Smith • Wed Jan 25 – earnings before the open: ABT, APH, BA, CVLT, EAT, FCX, GWW, HBAN, ITW, LOGI, PG, PGR, Novartis, NYCB, PGR, Santander, SC, STT, TXT, UTX, VLY • Wed Jan 25 – earnings after the close: BXS, CCI, CLB, DRE, EBAY, FFIV, KNX, LRCX, MCK, NOW, QCOM, T, TCBI, UNPQ, VAR, VRTX, WDC, XLNX • Thurs Jan 26 – China Dec industrial profits (Wed night/Thurs morning) • Thurs Jan 26 – US wholesale inventories for Dec. 8:30amET. • Thurs Jan 26 – US advanced goods trade balance for Dec. 8:30amET. • Thurs Jan 26 – US flash services PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Thurs Jan 26 – US new home sales for Dec. 10amET. • Thurs Jan 26 – European trading updates: Anglo American, Diageo, JCDecaux, LVMH, Sage Group • Thurs Jan 26 – earnings before the open: ADS, BHI, BIIB, BMS, BMY, BX, CAT, CELG, CMCSA, DGX, DOW, F, LEA, LUV, MJN, OSK, PHM, PX, RCI, RTN, SHW, Sky, STM, SWK, TROW, Unilever • Thurs Jan 26 – earnings after the close: AJG, BCR, FLEX, GOOG, INTC, JNPR, KLAC, MSFT, MXIM, PFPT, SBUX, VMW • Fri Jan 27 – China New Year holiday. Mainland markets closed Fri 1/27-Thurs 2/2. • Fri Jan 27 – US Q4 GDP. 8:30amET. • Fri Jan 27 – US durable goods for Dec. 8:30amET. • Fri Jan 27 – US Michigan Confidence for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Jan 27 – earnings before the open: APD, BT, CL, CVX, HON, UBS • Mon Jan 30 – US personal income/spending for Dec. 8:30amET. • Mon Jan 30 – US PCE for Dec. 8:30amET. • Mon Jan 30 – US pending home sales for Dec. 10amET. • Mon Jan 30 – earnings before the open: BAH, EPD • Mon Jan 30 – earnings after the close: CR, GGG, IDTI, IEX, LEG, PFG, RGA • Tues Jan 31 – BOJ policy decision (Mon night/Tues morning) • Tues Jan 31 – US employment cost index (ECI) for Q4. 8:30amET. • Tues Jan 31 – US CoreLogic home prices for Nov. 9amET. • Tues Jan 31 – Chicago PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Tues Jan 31 – US consumer confidence for Jan. 10amET. • Tues Jan 31 – earnings before the open: ABC, ALLY, COH, HOG, LLY, MA, NDAQ, NUE, PFE, SMG, SPG, TMO, UA, UPS, VLO, WDR, XOM, XRX, ZBH • Tues Jan 31 – earnings after the close: AAPL, APC, BDN, CB, CHRW, EQR, MANH, PLT, X • Wed Feb 1 – China NBS manufacturing/non-manufacturing PMIs (Tues night/Wed morning) • Wed Feb 1 – US ADP employment report for Jan. 8:15amET. • Wed Feb 1 – Markit manufacturing PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Wed Feb 1 – US manufacturing ISM for Jan. 10amET. • Wed Feb 1 – US construction spending for Dec. 10amET. • Wed Feb 1 – US auto sales for Jan. • Wed Feb 1 – FOMC decision. 2pmET. • Wed Feb 1 – earnings before the open: ADP, ANTM, MO, MTH, Roche, Siemens • Wed Feb 1 – earnings after the close: ALL, CBL, CDNS, CRUS, DOX, LNC, LSTR, MAA, MET, TSCO • Thurs Feb 2 – ECB economic bulletin. 4amET. • Thurs Feb 2 – BOE policy decision. 7amET. • Thurs Feb 2 – US non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for Q4. 8:30amET. • Thurs Feb 2 – European trading updates: Aberdeen Asset Mgmt., CME, Daimler, Deutsche Bank, EL, IP, MMC, MRK, Nokia, PH, R, Vodafone, WFT, XYL • Thurs Feb 2 – earnings after the close: AIV, CCK, CMG, DATA, FEYE, GGP, GPRO, HIG, KIM, VR • Fri Feb 3 – China mainland markets re-open after being shut for the New Year holiday • Fri Feb 3 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (Thurs night/Fri morning) • Fri Feb 3 – US jobs report for Jan. 8:30amET. • Fri Feb 3 – US Markit services PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Fri Feb 3 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Feb 3 – US factory orders for Dec. 10amET. • Fri Feb 3 – US durable goods for Dec. 10amET. • Fri Feb 3 – earnings before the open: APO, ATHN, CLX, HSY, PSX, WY • Mon Feb 6 – earnings before the open: AINV, CBOE, HAS • Mon Feb 6 – earnings after the close: MAC • Tues Feb 7 – China Caixin services PMI (Mon night/Tues morning). • Tues Feb 7 – US trade balance for Dec. 8:30amET. • Tues Feb 7 – US JOLTs report for Dec. 10amET. • Tues Feb 7 – US consumer credit for Dec. 3pmET. • Wed Feb 8 – ECB’s Draghi speaks in Dutch parliament • Wed Feb 8 – earnings after the close: PRU • Thurs Feb 9 – US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Dec. 10amET. • Fri Feb 10 – US import price index for Jan. 8:30amET. • Fri Feb 10 – US Michigan Confidence for Feb. 10amET. • Tues Feb 14 – US PPI for Jan. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for Feb. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US CPI for Jan. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US retail sales for Jan. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US industrial production for Jan. 9:15amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US NAHB housing market index for Feb. 10amET. • Thurs Feb 16 – ECB meeting minutes • Thurs Feb 16 – US housing starts/building permits for Jan. 8:30amET. • Thurs Feb 16 – US Philadelphia Fed for Feb. 8:30amET. • Tues Feb 21 – US flash manufacturing PMI for Feb. 9:45amET. • Wed Feb 22 – US existing home sales for Jan. 10amET. • Wed Feb 22 – FOMC minutes from 2/1 meeting. 2pmET. • Thurs Feb 23 – US home price purchase index for Q4. 9amET. • Thurs Feb 23 – US flash services PMI for Feb. 9:45amET. • Fri Feb 24 – US new home sales for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Feb 24 – US Michigan sentiment for Feb. 10amET.
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